Showing posts with label social psychology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label social psychology. Show all posts

February 11, 2013

Exercise: Priming students to detect covert biases

In an eye-opening exercise in my graduate forensic psychology course, I had two groups separately analyze a sanitized forensic report. The subject of the report was a 16-year-old boy named "John" who had committed a relatively minor sex offense; the evaluation issue was treatment amenability. After independent group discussions, the two groups shared their impressions as follows:

Group A: "John has a conduct disorder and is narcissistic. His misconduct appears to be escalating. There are ominous warning signs of budding psychopathy. He is at a crossroads in his life; he could go bad fast."

Group B: "This report is biased. The evaluator has joined with John's mother, and is channeling the mother's antagonism toward John. There is evidence of racism, homophobia, and political conservatism. The evaluator’s antipathy toward John feels personal – perhaps he has a wayward teenage son?"

The two groups looked across the table at each other, flabbergasted. Some suspected a trick. "Did you really give us the same report to read?" one student queried.

Yes, everyone had read the identical report. And, in case you wondered, group selection was random; there were no baseline differences that would explain the groups' divergent opinions.

Rather, the difference was in how the two groups were primed to read the report. Their instructions:

Group A: "Read the report with the goal of trying to understand John. What makes him tick? Does he have any potential clinical diagnoses? What is your prognosis for his future?"

Group B: "Read the report with the goal of trying to understand the perspective of the report writer. Do you see any problems with his method or his analysis? If so, do they suggest any potential biases?"

This was no abstract academic exercise. Channeling John’s hateful mother, this seminal report reads like something torn from the pages of an Anne Rule novel, replete with enough (uncorroborated) animal torture and arson to excite any true believer in the infamous McDonald Triad. Going unchallenged at the time, the report had a hugely prejudicial impact on decision-makers. For years to come, institutional bureaucrats and forensic experts quoted liberally from it to bolster their opinions that John was dangerous.

This is not an isolated or unusual case. Alarmist reports like this have remarkable staying power, their uncorroborated claims taking on a life of their own as they ripple through their subjects' lives, eschewing rational analysis or contestation. The power of a single forensic evaluator is truly frightening at times.

Cutting through the hype


So how did a group of graduate students manage to see through the hype that had buffaloed seasoned professionals, to take the measure of the evaluator and expose his subterranean biases? Remarkably, all it took was a simple admonition to think critically, and to be alert to potential biases.

Ideally, we should always be exercising these analytical faculties. We should train ourselves to simultaneously process at least two units of analyses, asking ourselves both:

A. What does this report tell us about its subject?

B. What are the limitations of this report? How might its findings be unreliable, and perhaps flawed by unreliable or insufficient information, unconscious assumptions and biases, or other factors?

Cognitive biases


In the class exercise, Group A was focused only on Question A, whereas Group B focused on Question B. When forensic experts review a report, our approach should be bidirectional, and incorporate both perspectives.

Constructive skepticism benefits from an understanding of cognitive biases and how they work. In the instant case, the most obvious of these was confirmatory bias. This is the tendency to actively seek out and assign more weight to information that confirms one's prior beliefs, discounting or ignoring disconfirmatory data. Clinicians who fall under the spell of psychopathy theory, for example, tend to see psychopaths lurking behind every bush. A clue to the author's preconceptions in John's case was found in a footnote citing Stanton Samenow’s The Criminal Mind, an influential but decidedly polemic treatise that vigorously disavows social factors in crime and -- as its title implies -- caricatures criminals as a breed apart from normal human beings. 

Once you detect such selective perception in play, you may see related cognitive biases which the discerning expert should always be on the lookout for in forensic (and other) reports. These include, but are not limited to:

  • Salience bias, in which inordinate attention is paid to exotic or highly distinctive information, at the expense of ordinary features of a case that may be important. In John's case, the evaluator overweighted the mother's fanciful tales about John's early childhood ("He never cried liked a normal baby!"), while ignoring more proximate evidence of John's confusion over his sexuality. In criminal cases, salience bias often contributes to racial stereotyping.

  • Hindsight bias, or the tendency to see events as more predictable than they were before they took place. Using hindsight, forensic experts are prone to overvalue known facts that tend to explain an event; a countermeasure is to deliberately consider information that supports alternate conclusions. 

  • Availability bias, in which the probability of an event is judged by how easy it is to think of examples. Especially when combined with ignorance of base rates, this can lead to a tendency to overpredict dramatic events, even when -- as in the case of black swans -- their likelihood is actually low.

  • Illusory correlation, in which a relationship is imagined between variables that are in fact unrelated. In John's case, the mother's dramatic tales -- even if true -- may have had little or nothing to do with John's teenage misconduct. However, when read by subsequent decision-makers in a cultural climate that privileges psychopathy as an explanation for criminal conduct, they had an enormously prejudicial impact. 

(Wikipedia maintains an exhaustive list of these decision-making biases, along with links to their definitions.

To avoid perpetuating biases, forensic evaluators should train themselves to think like "Agent J" in Men in Black. Rather than jumping to superficially plausible conclusions, try to consciously develop alternate hypotheses and test their fit with the evidence. This scientific mindset kept Agent J (Will Smith) from assuming that little Tiffany, a blonde girl carrying quantum physics textbooks through the ghetto at night, was the innocent party just because she did not superficially resemble the monsters who were also out and about. Here is the scene from Men in Black that I show in my class, in which Agent J explains his logic in shooting Tiffany -- rather than the monsters -- during a simulation training:

September 19, 2010

Science often disbelieved, study finds

How many times have you found yourself in court, being challenged on basic information that is virtually undisputed and noncontroversial among scientists? As it turns out, no matter how knowledgeable you are, or how great your credentials, judges or jurors may disbelieve the scientific evidence you are presenting if it does not match their social values.

That's no big surprise, given decades of social psychology research into cognitive dissonance. But a study funded by the National Science Foundation and scheduled for publication in the Journal of Risk Research sheds new light on why "scientific consensus" fails to persuade.

Study participants were much more likely to see a scientist with elite credentials as an "expert" on such culturally contested issues as global warming, gun control, and the risks of nuclear waste disposal if the expert's position matched the participant's own political leanings.

"These are all matters on which the National Academy of Sciences has issued 'expert consensus' reports," said lead author Dan Kahan, a law professor at Yale University. "Using the reports as a benchmark, no cultural group in our study was more likely than any other to be 'getting it right,' i.e., correctly identifying scientific consensus on these issues. They were all just as likely to report that 'most' scientists favor the position rejected by the National Academy of Sciences expert consensus report if the report reached a conclusion contrary to their own cultural predispositions."

The findings suggest that mere education alone will not increase people's willingness to accept scientific consensus as accurate, said co-author Donald Braman, a law professor at George Washington University. "To make sure people form unbiased perceptions of what scientists are discovering, it is necessary to use communication strategies that reduce the likelihood that citizens of diverse values will find scientific findings threatening to their cultural commitments."

Information sources more atomized

Unfortunately, trends in public consumption of news may make this task increasingly difficult. Although people are spending at least as much time as ever on the news, they are less likely to read the daily newspaper and more likely to get their information from television and online sources including, most recently, their telephones, according to an informative new survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. This decreases our common knowledge base and makes it easier for ideologically slanted information sources to influence public opinion.

Indeed, the Pew researchers found ideology inextricably linked with people's choices of news sources. For example, here in the United States, Republicans, conservatives, and so-called "Tea Party" enthusiasts were much more likely than the general public to watch Fox News and listen to Rush Limbaugh. In contrast, the researchers found, supporters of gay rights make up large shares of regular readers of the New York Times and listeners at National Public Radio.

In an interesting analysis of the mainstreaming of extremism, alternative journalist Arun Gupta points out the ease with which political pundits for whom facts are irrelevant can indoctrinate the uninformed. A respondent committed to rational scientific inquiry becomes like a dog chasing its tail: In the time it takes to deconstruct one fraudulent news story, the pundits have concocted five more.

Top myths of popular psychology

For a great myth-busting tool, I recommend Scott Lilienfeld's latest, 50 great Myths of Popular Psychology. Lilienfeld and co-authors Steven Jay Lynn, John Ruscio, and the late Barry Beyerstein provide dozens of examples of entrenched popular beliefs that have been debunked by high-quality research, many relevant to forensic practice. A few examples:
  • Human memory works like a tape recorder or video camera, and accurately records the events we have experienced
  • Abstinence is the only effective treatment for problem drinking
  • Criminal profiling helps solve crimes
(You'll remember that last one from my most recent post.)

Given the public's increasingly atomized sources of information, it behooves us to be knowledgeable about both ideological influences and common myths. What an expert witness might naively regard as established science may, after all, be subject to disbelief.

A blogger responds:

"Science, Believing Is Believing," Scott H. Greenfield, Esq. at Simple Justice

The featured research:

October 8, 2009

Equality in justice: Cognitive dissonance and fame

Having blogged about both the Polanski case and that of David Mitchell (Susan Smart) in Utah, I was intrigued to read this sociological analysis of the divergent media coverage of the two cases, over at one of my favorite blogs, Everyday Sociology. It's always fascinating to analyze the unstated assumptions and biases in media coverage of legal cases, assumptions that both reflect and reinforce public attitudes.

Guest essay by Sally Raskoff*

Two cases involving the rape of a young girl have been in the news: one involving Roman Polanski's arrest and the other about Elizabeth Smart's court testimony. While these cases have the "adult male-minor female" rapes as their basic similarity, most other things have been very different, especially in news reports and public reactions.

The "Polanski" case actually involves this Academy Award winning director's flight from sentencing after his guilty plea and conviction in the rape of the 13-year-old girl. After 32 years, he was arrested recently in Switzerland to await extradition back to the United States for sentencing and additional charges of evading justice. The news reports focus on what a terrible time he's had in life, from his family’s losses in the Holocaust to the murder of his pregnant wife by the Manson "family", and on the fabulous movies he's produced since living in Europe after he fled Los Angeles.

Until recently, little had been mentioned of the rape survivor, who is now an adult woman. A recent article fully identifies her and discusses the apparent civil settlement in which Polanski allegedly was to pay her half a million dollars, although no public documentation can confirm that she received those funds. Her lawyers' requests to the court for him to pay the settlement past its due date cease about the time she wrote a public letter stating that she thinks he should be able to return to the country, ostensibly to attend the Academy Awards show when he was nominated in 2002.

The "Smart" case involves the nine month long abduction of Utahan Elizabeth Smart. Her alleged kidnapper, Brian David Mitchell, subjected her to a "plural marriage" ceremony and according to Smart repeatedly raped her. She is now 21 and gave her testimony at the mental competency hearing of Mitchell just before leaving on her religious mission to France. Mitchell is cast as a religious fanatic who told her that he was doing what the lord wanted him to do. As of this writing, he has not yet been convicted of the crime as it has not yet been established if he is mentally competent to stand trial.

Let's look at these cases sociologically.

Note the language used in the reporting of each case. Is it clear who the victim is in each case?

Many news reports and editorials about the Polanski case lament his treatment by the justice system, and some even suggest that he is the victim. Some articles discuss the cost of bringing him back to court, which makes the taxpayers the victim. Some articles focus on how the rape survivor, the actual victim, said that he should be free to live his life and if she says that, well, we should let her decide, which reinforces the idea that he is the victim.

The Smart articles focus on her as the rape survivor and certainly do not cast Mitchell as a victim. They cast him as crazy or as a crafty rapist who acts like a religious fanatic so as not to take the blame for his actions.

The headlines use "Polanski" and "Smart", not "Mitchell" or "Geimer."

Polanski's name is certainly a familiar one since he is famous. Smart has become famous as an icon of parental fear -- the girl who was abducted from her bedroom at night. As is typical in rape cases, Samantha Geimer's name was withheld when she was a minor yet she herself went public when she wrote the letter in support of Polanski. Mitchell is not a name familiar to people even though most know that some man abducted and raped Elizabeth Smart.

From this point forward, I will refer to the "Smart" case as the Mitchell case.

Note the basic features of each case: an adult man raped a young girl.

Is this contested in either case? Yes and no. Mitchell has been in a mental institution since his arrest in 2003 and the recent hearing was to establish whether or not he could stand trial. Polanski testified that he did the crime (although in his plea agreement he plead guilty to "unlawful sex with a minor") and his latest issues revolve around his flight from the justice system to escape sentencing and serving more time. Mitchell has not been convicted yet Polanski has. However, in the news articles, Polanski's guilt is downplayed and Mitchell's is assumed.

Note the social class differences in each case.

While Polanski is clearly a member of the upper socioeconomic strata, Mitchell and his co-defendant wife are in the lower strata. Polanski was able to flee to Europe, continuing to make his films and generate his substantial income. While the social class status of Ms. Geimer is not fully apparent, it is likely that she and her family live a middle class life, even if she did not receive the settlement. The Smart family are firmly in the upper middle class of suburban Salt Lake City, while the Mitchell couple were basically homeless and firmly ensconced in the lower echelon of society’s social class levels.

Social class alone can explain much of the dynamics of these cases. Those with the higher class status tend to gain more favorable coverage in the press. Polanski received more favorable coverage than his victim did, and Smart certainly received more media attention than her abductor did.

One might hope that people who have been victimized would receive more careful and supportive press coverage, this certainly didn't happen in the Polanski case.

Note the issues of fame and social power in each case.

Social power derives from social class but also from fame. Smart was featured on America's Most Wanted and has spoken in public and to Congress about sexual predator issues and legislation.

Most particularly in the Polanski case, fame insulates the perpetrator from paying his full debt to the justice system. So much so that some even call into question his guilt even though that had been firmly established in court. (See Harvey Weinstein's quote about the "so-called crime" in the Los Angeles Times). Reaction to the Polanski case avoids discussion of his guilt in this crime of rape and focuses on other issues that are not salient. Consider how Mr. Weinstein might react if a female family member of his had been the victim in this case - might he advocate the release of that person as he does Polanski?

The exploitation of women in the entertainment industry is a related topic -- some may not see why having sex with someone at a photo shoot was wrong -- even if she was underage and under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Some also point to the mother who dropped her off at the house where the rape took place as culpable.

However, only the rapist is responsible for the rape, no matter what bad decisions others might have made.

What isn't being talked about?

In the Polanski case, the exploitation of women is not a topic that many are choosing to discuss. How many other girls and women have been raped by people with power over them? We’ll never know, especially if those powerful people are not held to the legal standards that govern our society.

Absent from the discussion of the Mitchell case are the cultural underpinnings of how religion played a role in the abduction and rapes. The "plural marriage" as it was called when she was first rescued, was code for rape yet the word "rape" was not uttered for some time after she was freed. That this particular crime took place in a specific religious and cultural environment with a history of patriarchy (and, decades ago, of plural marriage) isn’t a coincidence. Elizabeth Smart was raised, as most of us are, in a culture of male dominance and female obedience.

It is also likely that Smart, like Patty Hearst and many other children abducted by sexual predators, was experiencing something akin to the Stockholm Syndrome. When she was first discovered, she did not readily identify herself. When held long enough under certain circumstances, people may "go along" with their captors and not escape when they might have had the chance.

So, how can we explain the different ways that we are reacting to these cases?

While both cases have at their core the rape of a 13- or 14-year-old girl by an adult man, public discussion and reaction to these cases is notably different. Social class, power, and fame all have their influences yet cognitive dissonance is also taking place.

Cognitive dissonance occurs when people have to reconcile two conflicting ideas at the same time. We often try and alter one of the ideas to be consistent with the other. For instance, people generally want to like and respect people with fame and power. When those people do bad things, we can react in many different ways but in the Polanski case, so many years after the event, some want to believe he paid his debt to society by having lived such a troubled life. Thinking of someone as both a good person and a rapist is very difficult to reconcile. Normally we decide that someone who commits rape is no longer a good person. In this example, many people, especially many in the entertainment industry, have chosen to downplay his actions to maintain the idea that their conflicting image of him as a good person.

But the justice system doesn’t see it this way, and after all, time spent living in a Swiss chalet isn't the same as "doing time." How do you think we would talk about the case if Elizabeth Smart's alleged rapist had fled the country for more than three decades and evaded justice?

*Reproduced with the written permission of the author. Dr. Raskoff is Chair of Sociology and Ethnic Studies at Los Angeles Valley College.